I pulled monthly returns for 10 tickers across 2025. I wanted to see which months were strong, which were weak, and whether any patterns emerged.
Some things surprised me. May was the best month (+15% average), not the worst. September was strong, not weak. Traditional seasonal patterns didn't hold.
This is one year of data. Patterns might not repeat. But here's what happened in 2025.
I analyzed 10 tickers: SPY, QQQ, PLTR, GOOGL, TSLA, NVDA, HIMS, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN.
For each month from January to November, I calculated returns from the monthly open to close. Then I looked for patterns.
| Month | Avg Return | Leader | Leader Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | +6.2% | HIMS | +51.4% |
| February | -0.4% | HIMS | +28.8% |
| March | -11.4% | PLTR | -4.7% |
| April | +6.5% | PLTR | +41.2% |
| May | +15.1% | HIMS | +67.7% |
| June | +3.5% | NVDA | +16.6% |
| July | +9.9% | HIMS | +35.5% |
| August | +0.4% | GOOGL | +12.6% |
| September | +14.4% | HIMS | +37.2% |
| October | +4.8% | GOOGL | +16.8% |
| November | -5.4% | GOOGL | +13.5% |
May averaged +15.1% across all tickers. Nine out of ten were positive. HIMS exploded +67.7%. TSLA gained +23.7%. NVDA added +19.5%.
This contradicts the old saying "sell in May and go away." In 2025, May was the month to be invested.
Will this repeat? I don't know. But in 2025, selling in May would have been a mistake.
March averaged -11.4%. All ten tickers were negative. Even the "winner" (PLTR) was down -4.7%. HIMS crashed -34.3%.
This was a market-wide correction. Diversification didn't help. Everything fell.
September averaged +14.4%, the second-best month. All ten tickers were positive. HIMS gained +37.2%. TSLA added +35.5%.
September is traditionally a weak month. Not in 2025. It was one of the strongest.
November averaged -5.4%. Seven out of ten tickers were negative. PLTR dropped -17.8%. NVDA fell -14.9%.
Profit-taking before year-end? Maybe. Or just normal volatility. Hard to say.
| Ticker | Months Led | Which Months |
|---|---|---|
| HIMS | 5 | Jan, Feb, May, Jul, Sep |
| GOOGL | 3 | Aug, Oct, Nov |
| PLTR | 2 | Mar, Apr |
| NVDA | 1 | Jun |
HIMS led five months. But it was also the worst performer four months. Extreme volatility. Big gains, big losses.
GOOGL led three consecutive months (Aug-Nov). More consistent. Less dramatic.
PLTR had a strong April (+41.2%) but crashed in November (-17.8%).
Leading a month is nice. But consistency matters more for most investors.
| Ticker | Positive Months | Win Rate | YTD Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 9/11 | 81.8% | +124.0% |
| GOOGL | 9/11 | 81.8% | +65.6% |
| SPY | 8/11 | 72.7% | +15.6% |
| QQQ | 8/11 | 72.7% | +20.9% |
| NVDA | 8/11 | 72.7% | +33.4% |
| TSLA | 7/11 | 63.6% | +10.0% |
| AAPL | 7/11 | 63.6% | +15.0% |
| HIMS | 6/11 | 54.5% | +47.5% |
| MSFT | 6/11 | 54.5% | +15.2% |
| AMZN | 6/11 | 54.5% | +5.6% |
PLTR and GOOGL were positive 9 out of 11 months. That's 81.8% consistency. And both delivered strong returns (+124% and +65.6%).
HIMS was only positive 6 out of 11 months (54.5%). But it still returned +47.5% through extreme swings.
Different approaches. PLTR/GOOGL: steady gains. HIMS: volatile but profitable.
| Quarter | Avg Return | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jan-Mar) | -5.6% | Good start, then March crash |
| Q2 (Apr-Jun) | +25.1% | Strong recovery |
| Q3 (Jul-Sep) | +24.7% | Strongest quarter |
| Q4 (Oct-Nov) | -0.6% | Mixed, November pullback |
Q2 and Q3 were nearly identical in strength (+25% each). Q1 ended weak. Q4 started strong but November reversed gains.
Best overall performer. +124% YTD. Positive 9/11 months. April explosion (+41.2%). November crash (-17.8%). High consistency, high returns.
Second-best consistency. +65.6% YTD. Positive 9/11 months. Led three consecutive months (Aug-Nov). Strong second half.
Most volatile. Led 5 months but crashed 4 months. May: +67.7%. August: -34.4%. September: +37.2%. October: -18.7%. Wild ride.
Solid performer. +33.4% YTD. Positive 8/11 months. May surge (+19.5%). November pullback (-14.9%). AI hype helped.
Volatile but mediocre. +10% YTD. February crash (-24.2%). September surge (+35.5%). Big swings, small net gain.
Most consistent. 72.7% win rate. Steady gains. SPY +15.6%, QQQ +20.9%. Boring but reliable.
Worst performer. Only +5.6% YTD. Positive just 6/11 months. Disappointing year for a mega-cap.
I'm hesitant to draw strong conclusions from one year of data. But here are some observations:
Traditional seasonal patterns didn't hold. "Sell in May" was wrong. September weakness didn't happen. The market doesn't follow old rules.
Q2 and Q3 were the sweet spot. April through September averaged +50% combined. That's where the gains were.
March corrections happen. -11.4% average. All tickers down. No place to hide.
Volatility can pay. HIMS had the lowest consistency (54.5%) but still returned +47.5%. If you can stomach the swings.
Consistency + returns is rare. PLTR and GOOGL managed both. 81.8% win rate with strong gains. That's the ideal.
This is one year. 2025. That's it.
Patterns might not repeat. May might be weak in 2026. September might crash. March might rally.
I'm not predicting the future. I'm describing what happened in 2025.
Also:
After looking at every month in 2025, here's what I learned:
1. Traditional patterns don't always hold. May was strong, not weak. September was strong, not weak. Don't blindly follow old rules.
2. Corrections happen fast. March dropped -11.4% in one month. All tickers fell. Diversification didn't help.
3. Recovery can be strong. April-May gained +21.6% combined. The bounce was powerful.
4. Consistency matters more than I thought. PLTR and GOOGL's 81.8% win rate is impressive. Steady gains compound.
5. Volatility is a choice. HIMS delivered +47.5% but with brutal swings. SPY delivered +15.6% smoothly. Pick your poison.
6. One year isn't enough. I need more data before drawing strong conclusions. This is interesting, not actionable.
In 2025, May was the best month (+15.1%). March was the worst (-11.4%). HIMS led 5 months but crashed 4 times. PLTR and GOOGL were positive 9/11 months with strong returns.
Traditional seasonal patterns didn't hold. "Sell in May" was wrong. September was strong, not weak.
This is one year of data. Patterns might not repeat. I'm not making predictions. Just sharing what happened.
Final Thought: I went into this expecting to find clear seasonal patterns. Instead, I found that 2025 didn't follow the traditional rules. May was strong. September was strong. March crashed.
Maybe the market has changed. Maybe 2025 was unique. Maybe I need more data.
What I do know: consistency matters. PLTR and GOOGL were positive 9/11 months. That's more valuable than leading one month and crashing the next.
One year of data. Interesting patterns. No strong conclusions.